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美國認為轉化副熱帶風暴，而且將逐漸往北移動，評級 LOW。
SH, 13, 2015022118, , BEST, 0, 280S, 1547E, 30, 1000, SD, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 150, 40, 0, 0, P, 0, , 0, 0, MARCIA, S,
SH, 13, 2015022200, , BEST, 0, 276S, 1552E, 35, 996, SS, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 150, 40, 0, 0, P, 0, , 0, 0, MARCIA, S,
SH, 13, 2015022206, , BEST, 0, 268S, 1554E, 35, 996, SS, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 150, 40, 0, 0, P, 0, , 0, 0, MARCIA, S,
AN AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P)
HAS PERSISTED NEAR 27.1S 154.7E, APPROXIMATELY 95 NM EAST-NORTHEAST
OF BRISBANE, AUSTRALIA. THIS SYSTEM IS ASSESSED AS A SUBTROPICAL
CYCLONE. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD,
EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION
DISPLACED OVER THE SOUTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC. A 212320Z ASCAT
IMAGE INDICATES A SYMMETRIC CIRCULATION WITH AN EXTENSIVE BAND OF
GALE-FORCE WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE LLCC IS LOCATED
POLEWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND IS LOCATED UNDER SUBTROPICAL
WESTERLY FLOW WITH MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) VALUES ARE APPROXIMATELY 25C. THE LLCC IS
CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK BAROCLINICITY, HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO TRACK EQUATORWARD OVER WARMER SST OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 3
DAYS WITH LOW POTENTIAL FOR TRANSITION INTO A TROPICAL SYSTEM.
ADDITIONALLY, VWS SHOULD DECREASE AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS UNDER THE
STR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 30 TO 35
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 996 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW. |
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