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看來三天後是顛峰，預期到C3，還是有機會到C4 不過應該不會朝向美國本土，應該是個無害颱風 |
| TCFA了 以下資料來自JWTCWTPN21 PHNC 062000MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN190 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.0N 95.2W TO 10.9N 102.5W WITHINTHE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OFNUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREAARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 061930ZINDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 9.3N 96.0W. THESYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS.2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.9N 94.5W IS NOWLOCATED NEAR 9.3N 96.0W, APPROXIMATELY 495 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OFACAPULCO, MEXICO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWSCONVECTIVE BANDING HAS STEADILY DEEPENED AND WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO AWELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THIS DEVELOPMENT IS ALSOCAPTURED IN A SERIES OF MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY, INCLUDING A061504Z SSMI-S PASS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS 07DEGREES TO THE SOUTH OF A RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LIGHT (05-10 KNOT)VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). ALSO, ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWSEXCELLENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURESARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT LEAST 28 DEGREES CELSIUS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINEDWINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE ISESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. DUE TO THE OVERALL FAVORABLEENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANTTROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY072000Z.//NNNN |
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