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17E.Rick 巔峰曾達C2 登陸墨西哥

簽到天數: 3198 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

king111807|2021-10-22 13:39 | 顯示全部樓層
NHC展望提升至High,80%
1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure area
located about 250 miles south of Acapulco, Mexico, continue to show
signs of organization, but recent satellite wind data indicate that
the low does not yet have a closed surface wind circulation.  
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for additional
development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is expected
to form over the next day or so while moving slowly
west-northwestward or northwestward just offshore the southern coast
of Mexico.  Interests along the southern and southwestern coast of
Mexico should monitor the progress of this system during the next
few days, and additional information, including gale warnings, can
be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
two_pac_2d1.png
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簽到天數: 1650 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

老農民版夜神月|2021-10-22 10:25 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC發布TCFA
WTPN21 PHNC 220130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 92E)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
125 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.6N 98.0W TO 16.2N 102.3W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 102200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.7N 98.3W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92E) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
12.7N 98.3W, APPROXIMATELY 350 NM SOUTH-EAST OF ZIHUATANEJO, MEXICO.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 1940Z ATMS 88GHZ
MICROWAVE PASS DEPICT CONSOLIDATING, STRONG AND PERSISTENT CENTRAL
CONVECTION OVER AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE WITH BURGEONING POLEWARD
OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (05-10 KTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (30-31 C). MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
230130Z.
//
NNNN
ep9221.gif 92E_220130sair.jpg
92E_intensity_latest.png 92E_gefs_latest.png
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