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91W JMA:TD

查看數: 5927 評論數: 5 收藏 0切换到帖子模式
    組圖打開中,請稍候......
發佈時間: 2021-9-27 14:13

正文摘要:

  基本資料   編號               :91 W 擾動編號日期 :2021 年 09 月 27 日 13 時 撤編日期        :20 ...

jwpk9899 發表於 2021-9-28 09:45
JTWC: MEDIUM abpwsair.jpg
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 21.3N 153.2E, APPROXIMATELY 677 NM NORTHEAST OF GUAM. MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 272107Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT PERSISTENT CONVECTION OFFSET TO THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). A 272143Z METOP-A ASCAT PASS SHOWS HIGHER WINDS IN THE EASTERN HEMISPHERE OF THE ELONGATED LLC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES GENERALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT, WITH ROBUST EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) BEING OFFSET BY MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). NUMERICAL MODELS AGREE THAT 91W WILL TRACK NORTH-NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, BUT DISAGREE REGARDING INTENSIFICATION, WITH GFS AND NAVGEM SHOWING INTENSIFICATION BUT ECMWF AND JMA REMAINING BELOW WARNING CRITERIA.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.
霧峰追風者 發表於 2021-9-27 23:20
JMA:TD
20210927140901_0_Z__C_010000_20210927120000_MET_CHT_JCIspas_JCP600x581_JRcolor_T.png

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