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23P.Niran 巔峰達澳式C5 南半球新風季第三個C5

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發佈時間: 2021-2-26 23:03

正文摘要:

  五級強烈熱帶氣旋   編號:17 U ( 23 P ) 名稱:Niran 以上資料來自:FMS、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

dom 發表於 2021-3-7 10:48
JTWC03Z發佈Final Warning
WTPS31 PGTW 070300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (NIRAN) WARNING NR 025//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (NIRAN) WARNING NR 025   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   070000Z --- NEAR 27.3S 175.7E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 20 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 27.3S 175.7E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   071200Z --- 29.5S 177.8W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
070300Z POSITION NEAR 27.9S 177.3E.
07MAR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (NIRAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 572
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
20 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME ELONGATED AND THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS NOW FULLY EXPOSED. THE INITIAL POSITION
WAS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE USING THE AFOREMENTIONED MSI. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50KTS IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN PGTW
ESTIMATE OF ST3.0/45KTS AND SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE ADVANCED DVORAK
TECHNIQUE (ADT) WITH A CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.4/53KTS AND
EXTRAPOLATED USING A PARTIAL PASS FROM A 062212Z METOP-B ASCAT
IMAGE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW BEING
OFFSET BY VERY STRONG (30-40KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SST) 24-25C. THE CYCLONE IS MOVING ALONG THE
SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
EAST. THE HARSH UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS, ALONG WITH THE DECREASED SSTS,
HAS DECREASED THE SYSTEM INTENSITY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS AS THE
SYSTEM IS UNDERGOING SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION AND IS EXPECTED TO
COMPLETE SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. NUMERICAL
MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 12 WITH ONLY A 70NM SPREAD.
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FIRST 12 HOURS OF THE FORECAST TRACK
AND LOW CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER DUE TO THE INCREASING SPREAD IN MODEL
SOLUTIONS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT
TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED
FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
070000Z IS 27 FEET.//
NNNN
32950491-9116-48CC-8B4D-435B0E14EFA3.gif
dom 發表於 2021-3-6 21:02
JTWC12Z降格C2
23P NIRAN 210306 1200 24.3S 169.5E SHEM 85 962
SHGMSCOL.JPG

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