正宜27

jma:GW 令和02年10月29日10時35分 発表
<29日09時の実況>
大きさ        -
強さ        -
        熱帯低気圧
存在地域        カロリン諸島
中心位置        北緯 5度20分(5.3度)
        東経 148度40分(148.7度)
進行方向、速さ        西 30km/h(15kt)
中心気圧        1004hPa
最大風速        15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速        23m/s(45kt)
<29日21時の予報>
強さ        -
        熱帯低気圧
存在地域        カロリン諸島
予報円の中心        北緯 7度25分(7.4度)
        東経 148度00分(148.0度)
進行方向、速さ        北北西 20km/h(11kt)
中心気圧        1000hPa
最大風速        15m/s(30kt)

最大瞬間風速	23m/s(45kt)
予報円の半径	110km(60NM)

霧峰追風者

評級提升至Medium。

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 6.0N 151.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.7N 149.5E, APPROXIMATELY 146
NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF CHUUK, FSM. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 281527Z AMSR2 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICT A
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH FRAGMENTED FORMATIVE
BANDING AND DEEP CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. INVEST 90W
IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW, LOW (<15KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (30-31C) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT THAT
INVEST 90W WILL CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE AND INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS
NORTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10
TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

Heigo

JTWC Low

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 6.0N
151.0E, APPROXIMATELY 95 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CHUUK, FSM. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 280641Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE
DEPICT A DISORGANIZED AREA OF PERSISTENT, DEEP CONVECTION. INVEST
90W IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (<15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (30-31C)
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
INVEST 90W WILL CONSOLIDATE AND STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT 36-72HRS AS
IT TRACKS NORTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

正宜27

jma預測2天後增強為td

dom

GFS預測直撲台灣，EC預測台灣以東海域北轉，兩者同樣看好高強度，後期路徑變化仍大