老農民版夜神月

  四級颶風  
編號：18 E
名稱：Marie

  基本資料  
擾動編號日期：2020 年 09 月 28 日 01 時
命名日期　　：2020 年 09 月 30 日 05 時
撤編日期　　：2020 年 10 月 11 日 09 時
登陸地點　　：無

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速 ：115  kt ( Cat.4 )
海平面最低氣壓 ：948 百帕
  擾動編號資料  
94E.INVEST.15kts-1005mb-14N-105W



NHC：20％  

1. A small area of low pressure has formed within an elongated region
of disturbed weather, a few hundred miles south of the southwestern
coast of Mexico. This system is expected to move generally westward
for the next day or two, and it could interact with a
westward-moving tropical wave during that time. Environmental
conditions are expected to support at least gradual development
during the next several days and a tropical depression is likely to
form later this week. The system is forecast to turn
west-northwestward by mid-week and will likely continue moving in
that general direction through the end of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

以上資料來自：NHC、颱風論壇整理製作

周子堯@FB

老農民版夜神月 發表於 2020-10-11 09:20
於昨日進入中太平洋，雖FNMOC至今仍未撤編，但CPHC始終並未對18E殘餘做出展望(系統位於雲圖左側)

剛說完沒多久，FNMOC隨即於0120z進行撤編

老農民版夜神月

於昨日進入中太平洋，雖FNMOC至今仍未撤編，但CPHC始終並未對18E殘餘做出展望(系統位於雲圖左側)

老農民版夜神月

最終比預期多撐持了將近一天，NHC判定Marie直到07/00Z方才退化為殘餘低氣壓

EP, 18, 2020100618,   , BEST,   0, 222N, 1353W,  35, 1005, TS,  34, NEQ,  110,    0,    0,    0, 1010,  270,  50,  45,   0,   E,   0,    ,   0,   0,      MARIE, M, 12, NEQ,  180,   90,  120,  180, genesis-num, 033,
EP, 18, 2020100700,   , BEST,   0, 224N, 1360W,  30, 1005, LO,  34, NEQ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1010,  180, 100,  40,   0,   E,   0,    ,   0,   0,      MARIE, M,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 033,

老農民版夜神月

Marie明顯較昨日NHC預報得更加堅韌
直至15Z仍持續維持TS性質

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 061443
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Marie Discussion Number  30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182020
800 AM PDT Tue Oct 06 2020

Marie continues to gradually spin down this morning, and the
impressive burst of convection that developed near the surface
center last night, now consists of a shrinking cloud mass with
significantly warming cloud tops.  Assuming some weakening since
the last night's METOP-A and B scatterometer passes indicating
peak winds of 40 kt, the initial intensity is lowered to 35 kt
which is also supported by a blend of the Dvorak intensity estimates
from TAFB and SAB.

Marie is moving over cool oceanic sea surface temperatures and
through a high statically stable air mass.  The persistent, harsh
vertical shear environment has displaced what remains of the
cyclone's associated deep convection well to the northeast of the
center.  The Statistical-dynamical intensity guidance and the
large-scale models are in general agreement with Marie degenerating
into a trough of low pressure in 3 days, and the NHC intensity
forecast follows suit.

The initial motion estimate is estimated to be west-northwestward,
or 295/8 kt. There are no significant changes to the previous
forecast track or reasoning.  The cyclone should continue moving
toward the west-northwest through Wednesday evening.  Through the
remaining portion of the period, the post-tropical remnant low
should continue to gradually spin down while moving westward within
the low-level easterlies and open up into a trough of low pressure
by Friday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/1500Z 22.1N 135.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
12H  07/0000Z 22.5N 136.2W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
24H  07/1200Z 22.9N 137.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H  08/0000Z 23.2N 138.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H  08/1200Z 23.2N 138.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H  09/0000Z 23.2N 139.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H  09/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts

老農民版夜神月

NHC認為Marie即將退化為殘餘低氣壓

190
WTPZ43 KNHC 052046
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Marie Discussion Number  27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182020
200 PM PDT Mon Oct 05 2020

Deep convection associated with Maria has all but dissipated and
what is left of it has been located over 120 n mi from the exposed
low-level center of the cyclone since around 1400 UTC this morning.
A recent ASCAT overpass shows the maximum winds have decreased to
43 kt as of 1800 UTC, and assuming weakening has continued since
that time, 40 kt will be the initial advisory intensity.

There are no reasons to believe that the deep convection will
redevelop near the center of Marie, as the cyclone is forecast to
remain in a hostile environment of 30 plus kt of wind shear, SSTs
cooler than 25 degrees C, and a surrounding dry and stable airmass.
Therefore, Maria is expected to be declared a remnant low by
tonight. The remnant low should gradually spin down and open into a
trough by late this week.

Marie continues to move west-northwestward at about 8 kt around a
mid-level ridge to its north. A turn to the west-southwest is
expected in a couple of days as low- mid-level ridging builds to the
northwest of what's left of the cyclone. The latest NHC track
forecast is little changed from the previous one, and is near the
various track consensus forecasts.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/2100Z 21.4N 132.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
12H  06/0600Z 21.8N 133.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H  06/1800Z 22.5N 135.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H  07/0600Z 23.0N 136.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H  07/1800Z 23.4N 137.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H  08/0600Z 23.3N 138.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H  08/1800Z 23.1N 139.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H  09/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto

老農民版夜神月

過去24H已開始迅速減弱,15Z定強已降至C1,80KT

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/1500Z 20.3N 128.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
12H  05/0000Z 20.7N 129.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
24H  05/1200Z 21.3N 131.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
36H  06/0000Z 22.0N 132.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
48H  06/1200Z 22.7N 133.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
60H  07/0000Z 23.4N 135.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
72H  07/1200Z 24.0N 136.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H  08/1200Z 24.8N 136.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  09/1200Z 25.3N 137.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

老農民版夜神月

型態已開始轉差,巔峰將過,強度即將開始逐步減弱

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/1500Z 18.4N 126.9W  115 KT 130 MPH
12H  04/0000Z 19.1N 127.7W  105 KT 120 MPH
24H  04/1200Z 20.0N 128.7W   90 KT 105 MPH
36H  05/0000Z 20.6N 129.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
48H  05/1200Z 21.2N 131.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
60H  06/0000Z 21.9N 132.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
72H  06/1200Z 22.5N 133.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
96H  07/1200Z 23.5N 135.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  08/1200Z 24.5N 136.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW