(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 10.9N 127.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 125.3E, APPROXIMATELY 90
NM EAST OF LEGAZPI, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 141021Z SSMIS F-17 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
DEPICT FLARING, SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF A BROAD
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FRAGMENTED FORMATIVE BANDING
BEGINNING TO WRAP IN FROM THE NORTH. 90W IS CURRENTLY IN A MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT WITH EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (5 TO 10 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29 TO 30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES BEING OFFSET BY INTERACTION WITH THE PHILIPPINE ISLANDS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 90W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD WITH MINIMAL INTENSIFICATION BEFORE CROSSING OVER THE PHILIPPINES, WITH THE MAJORITY OF INTENSIFICATION OCCURRING AFTER
MOVING OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
10.9N 127.9E, APPROXIMATELY 274 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF LEGAZPI,
PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
BUILDING DEEP CONVECTION OVER A BROAD REGION OF WEAK LOW LEVEL
ROTATION, WITH THE DEEPEST CONVECTION PREDOMINANTLY TO THE NORTH. A
140122Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS DISORGANIZED, SCATTERED DEEP
CONVECTION. A 140121Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS REVEALS LARGELY STRAIGHT-
LINE WIND FLOW SURROUNDING AN AREA OF WEAK TROUGHING, SUPPORTING THE
CURRENT POSITION. 90W IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (5 TO 10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND
WARM (30 TO 31 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 90W WILL TRACK WESTWARD WITH SLIGHT
INTENSIFICATION IN THE SHORT TERM BEFORE TRANSITING OVER THE
PHILIPPINE ISLANDS. FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.