THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 25.1N 142.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 26.0N 142.1E, APPROXIMATELY
85 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF IWO TO, JAPAN. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
(EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) PARTIALLY OBSCURED BY DISORGANIZED, FLARING CONVECTION
SHEARED SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH. SCATTEROMETRY DATA FROM A 092347Z
ASCAT-A PASS DEPICTS LIGHT WINDS (10-15 KTS) NEAR THE POSITION OF
THE LLCC WITH STRONGER (20-25 KTS) WINDS DISPLACED ABOUT 120 NM TO
THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST. THE SCATTEROMETRY DATA ALSO REVEALS THE
ELONGATED, ILL DEFINED NATURE OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION ITSELF.
THE ENVIRONMENT IS OVERALL FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER CONSOLIDATION WITH
VERY WARM (30-31 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND ROBUST
POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT OFFSET ONLY SLIGHTLY BY MILD TO MODERATE
(10-15) KTS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT
THAT THE SYSTEM WILL FURTHER CONSOLIDATE AS IT TRACKS NORTHWESTWARD
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
25.2N 142.4E, APPROXIMATELY 65 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF IWO TO.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) REVEALS A LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) PARTIALLY OBSCURED BY DISORGANIZED,
FLARING CONVECTION SHEARED SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH. RECENT
SCATTEROMETRY DATA FROM A TIMELY ASCAT-A 092347Z PASS DEPICTS LIGHT
WINDS (10-15 KTS) NEAR THE POSITION OF THE LLCC WITH STRONGER (20-
25 KTS) WINDS DISPLACED ABOUT 120 NM TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST.
FURTHERMORE, THE SCATTEROMETRY DATA REVEALS THE ELONGATED, ILL
DEFINED NATURE OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION ITSELF. THE ENVIRONMENT
IS OVERALL FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER CONSOLIDATION WITH VERY WARM (30-
31 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW
ALOFT OFFSET ONLY SLIGHTLY BY MILD TO MODERATE (10-15) KTS VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM
WILL FURTHER CONSOLIDATE AS IT TRACKS NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10
TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
