t02436

JMA 12Z升TD

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA AT 08N 160E WNW SLOWLY.

老農民版夜神月

EC,GFS00Z新報均看好此系統強度發展

jrchang5

JTWC已提升評級至Medium。

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 8.0N 168.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.0N 158.6E, APPROXIMATELY 419
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHUUK. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A BROAD, WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH MINIMAL
CONVECTION OVERHEAD. A 240240Z AMSR2 89/36GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS
A POTENTIALLY ORGANIZING MID-LEVEL STRUCTURE. 94W IS CURRENTLY IN A
MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW OFFSETTING LOW
(1O TO 15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM (28 TO 30 CELSIUS) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
SYSTEM WILL TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD WHILE SLOWLY INTENSIFYING,
POTENTIALLY REACHING WARNING CRITERIA IN SEVERAL DAYS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

老農民版夜神月

JTWC22/2000Z評級Low

(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) IS LOCATED NEAR 4.2N
169.6E, APPROXIMATELY 279 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KWAJALEIN. A 220724Z
SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH
ISOLATED CONVECTION. FURTHERMORE, A 220950Z ASCAT-B PASS SUPPORTS
THE LOCATION OF THIS BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH HIGH
(20-25KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY DECENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30C). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THIS DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE AS IT
TRACKS NORTHWESTWARD. THE WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH INVEST 94W WILL
INITIALLY BE ASYMMETRIC WITH STRONGER WINDS TO THE NORTH DUE TO A
TIGHTENED GRADIENT BETWEEN THE CIRCULATION AND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
TO THE NORTHEAST. GFS AND NAVGEM DEPICT WINDS FULLY WRAPPING AROUND
THE CIRCULATION BY  TAU 120.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.