(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 7.5N 166.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.5N 163.4E, APPROXIMATELY 202
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF UJELANG. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY, SUPPORTED BY 010051Z GMI 89/37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGES, SHOWS
A WEAK, ASYMMETRIC LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTION OVERHEAD AND POTENTIAL FORMATIVE BANDING
EXTENDING SOUTH. A 311045Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS REVEALS A SWATH OF 15
TO 20 KNOT WINDS OFFSET TO THE NORTH OF AN OBLONG, ILL-DEFINED LLCC.
99W IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH EXCELLENT POLEWARD
OUTFLOW, LOW (5 TO 10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29 TO 30
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT 99W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD WHILE
INTENSIFYING, REACHING WARNING THRESHOLD WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 7.5N
166.5E, APPROXIMATELY 103 NM SOUTHWEST OF KWAJALEIN. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD AND ELONGATED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) PARTIALLY OBSCURED BY UPPER LEVEL CIRRUS. A
310345Z F-15 SSMI 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A LINE OF DEEP
CONVECTION EXTENDING TO THE NORTHEAST. A 302202Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS
SHOWS THE VERY WEAK, BROAD LLC SURROUNDED BY 10 TO 15 KNOT WINDS.
99W IS CURRENTLY IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH EXCELLENT POLEWARD
OUTFLOW AND WARM (29 TO 30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BEING
OFFSET BY 20 TO 25 KNOT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 99W WILL TRACK NORTHWESTWARD WHILE INTENSIFYING
TO WARNING THRESHOLD IN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.
