(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
14.0N 165.9E, APPROXIMATELY 1242 NM EAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A POORLY ORGANIZED REGION OF
FLARING CONVECTION. A 040532Z AMSU 89GHZ MICROWAVE PARTIAL
IMAGE REVEALS THE CONVECTION IS STILL STRUGGLING TO COALESCE. INVEST
93W IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD AND
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (5 TO 15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND VERY
WARM (31 TO 32 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 93W WILL TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND
INTENSIFY, REACHING WARNING CRITERIA WITHIN THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
