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03W 接近民答那峨 發展受限

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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

2019-3-12 03:38 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 老農民版夜神月 於 2019-3-21 00:12 編輯

  熱帶低壓  
編號:03 W
名稱:

  基本資料  
擾動編號日期:2019 03 12 03
升格熱低日期:2019 03 14 14
JTWC升格日期:2019 03 15 08
撤編日期  :2019 03 20 13
登陸地點  :菲律賓 民答那峨

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速
中央氣象局 (CWB):15 m/s ( 7 級 )
日本氣象廳 (JMA) :15 m/s ( 30 kt )
聯合颱風警報中心 (JTWC):25 kts ( TD )
海平面最低氣壓1002 百帕

  過去路徑圖  

  擾動編號資料  
95W INVEST 190311 1800 3.8N 161.6E WPAC 15 0

20190311.1910.himawari-8.ir.95W.INVEST.15kts.1010mb.3.8N.161.6E.100pc.jpg

以上資料來自:CWB、JMA、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

評分

參與人數 1水氣能量 +15 +1 收起 理由
king111807 + 15 + 1 熱帶擾動首帖

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[LV.9]以壇為家II

霧峰追風者|2019-3-20 01:30 | 顯示全部樓層
老農民版夜神月 發表於 2019-3-20 00:19
有個小錯誤,其實那是JMA06Z時的天氣圖,12ZJMA已經連低壓都撤了,JMA天氣圖時間(UTC)位於左上角

感謝提醒,已經修改為正確時間^^

點評

少於20字請使用點評,以免受罰  發表於 2019-3-20 17:32
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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

老農民版夜神月|2019-3-20 00:19 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 老農民版夜神月 於 2019-3-20 00:24 編輯
霧峰追風者 發表於 2019-3-19 18:46
JMA 12Z減弱為低壓,已登陸民答那峨。

有個小錯誤,其實那是JMA06Z時的天氣圖,12ZJMA已經連低壓都撤了,JMA天氣圖時間(UTC)位於左上角
19031921.png

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[LV.9]以壇為家II

霧峰追風者|2019-3-19 18:46 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 霧峰追風者 於 2019-3-20 01:29 編輯

JMA 06Z減弱為低壓,已登陸民答那峨。
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1008 HPA NEAR 06N 123E WEST 10 KT

19031915.png

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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

老農民版夜神月|2019-3-19 01:59 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 老農民版夜神月 於 2019-3-19 03:31 編輯

覺得如果以風場圖來定強的話1806Z降格是早了點
尤其下午剛降格時的風場圖其實25KT的旗子說真的還不少,算是模糊地帶吧,可降可不降
其實假如要讓03W以熱帶低壓的強度1818Z幾乎登陸菲律賓時再降格也不是不可以
畢竟1812Z時也還是有(雖然非常少)的25KT旗幟
20190318.1710.himawari-8.ir.03W.THREE.20kts.1007mb.6.8N.126.7E.100pc.jpg LATEST03.jpg

不過也有可能是因為結構問題降格
畢竟JTWC半夜時已經分析不出03W的中心定位了
下午降格時T值也只有持續維持在T1.0
也許連續一兩天的T1.0也是JTWC選擇降格並事後修改強度
將1800Z也改為20KT的考量原因之一

TPPN10 PGTW 181456

A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (OVER MINDANAO)

B. 18/1430Z

C. XX.XX

D. XXX.XX

E. N/A/HMWRI8

F. N/A

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: POSITION OF LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER COULD NOT
BE FOUND.


I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


   MILAM

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[LV.9]以壇為家II

霧峰追風者|2019-3-18 19:53 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 霧峰追風者 於 2019-3-18 20:28 編輯

JTWC 06Z發FW,接近菲中群島,逐漸消散。
WTPN31 PGTW 180900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (THREE) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (THREE) WARNING NR 014   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   180600Z --- NEAR 6.6N 128.5E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 6.6N 128.5E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   181800Z --- 6.5N 126.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   190600Z --- 6.6N 123.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
180900Z POSITION NEAR 6.6N 127.9E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 03W (THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 170 NM
EAST OF DAVAO, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
DISORGANIZED SYSTEM WITH A SMALL AREA OF FRAGMENTED CONVECTION
SHEARED NORTHWESTWARD OF A RAGGED, EXPOSED, AND ILL-DEFINED
CIRCULATION. A 180121Z DIRECT ASCAT PASS INDICATES THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION HAS UNRAVELED AND OPENED INTO A WAVE/INVERTED TROUGH. THE
SAME ASCAT IMAGERY AND AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND RJTD
INDICATE THE TD HAS WEAKENED TO BELOW JTWC WARNING CRITERIA AND IS
NOT EXPECTED TO RECOVER AS IT TRACKS WESTWARD IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA
UNDER INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ADDITIONALLY, BY TAU 12, THE
SYSTEM WILL MAKE LANDFALL IN THE SOUTHERN PHILIPPINE ISLAND OF
MINDANAO NEAR DAVAO LEADING TO ITS FURTHER EROSION. HOWEVER, THE
SHEARED CONVECTION WILL STILL BRING NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS AND LARGE
AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION THAT CAN TRIGGER GUSTY WIND CONDITIONS AND
FLASH FLOODING OVER SOUTHERN MINDANAO. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON
THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM
WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180600Z IS 10 FEET.//
NNNN wp032019.20190318070522.gif
20190318.1120.himawari-8.ir.03W.THREE.20kts.1007mb.6.6N.128.5E.100pc.jpg

點評

已修正><  發表於 2019-3-18 20:30
雲圖用到92P的~  發表於 2019-3-18 20:09
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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

老農民版夜神月|2019-3-15 11:01 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 老農民版夜神月 於 2019-3-15 11:07 編輯

JTWC2019/03W首報
WTPN31 PGTW 150300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (THREE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150000Z --- NEAR 8.0N 144.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 8.0N 144.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 8.1N 141.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 8.5N 139.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 8.5N 136.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 8.5N 134.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 7.9N 129.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 7.8N 125.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
150300Z POSITION NEAR 8.0N 143.7E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 324 NM
SOUTH OF NAVSTA GUAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150000Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 150900Z, 151500Z, 152100Z AND 160300Z.//
NNNN

wp0319.gif 03W_150000sair.jpg

03W_gefs_latest.png esrl.eps.ecmb.hit.loop.95W.2019.2019031412.gif

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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

老農民版夜神月|2019-3-15 10:10 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 老農民版夜神月 於 2019-3-15 10:24 編輯

JTWC於1500Z升格95W為03W


#!001_MicrosoftEdge_User_Default_WebNotes_Microsoft-Edge-Web-Notes-Current-S1533968.jpg 0a6b269759ee3d6d466e0bd34d166d224e4aded0.jpg
20df9e510fb30f2486bc621bc695d143ad4b035e.jpg

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