(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 7.9S 150.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.1S 150.9E, APPROXIMATELY 234
NM NORTHEAST OF PORT MORESBY, PAPUA NEW GUINEA. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED IMAGERY AND A 141050Z MHS METOP-A MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW A
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT
DEEP CONVECTION AND FORMATIVE BANDING. A 141051Z METOP-A 89GHZ ASCAT
PASS REVEALS A MORE SYMMETRIC AND COMPACT CIRCULATION WITH STRONGER
WINDS WRAPPING IN FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS REMAINS FAVORABLE WITH LOW (5-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
POLEWARD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30
CELSIUS). DYNAMIC MODELS IN ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH A SOUTHERN
TRAJECTORY OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. ADDITIONALLY, MODELS INDICATE
GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION UNTIL REACHING THE CORAL SEA, THEN
INTENSIFYING MORE RAPIDLY WHEN EXPOSED TO OPEN WATER. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
TPPS10 PGTW 141522
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 92P (E OF PAPA NEW GUINEA)
B. 14/1500Z
C. 8.49S
D. 150.95E
E. FIVE/HMWRI8
F. T1.0/1.0/INIT OBS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .25 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 1.0. MET/PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
MARTIN
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
8.3S 151.3E, APPROXIMATELY 262 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT MORESBY,
PAPUA NEW GUINEA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY AND A 131932Z SSMIS
91GHZ IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION(LLC) WITH FLARING
DEEP CONVECTION. UPPER ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW (5-15 KNOT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR WITH GOOD POLEWARD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (29-30 CELSIUS) IN THE BANDA SEA SUPPORT FUTURE
DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT INDICATING A
SOUTHERN TRAJECTORY OVER THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS WITH GRADUAL
INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
