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霧峰追風者|2018-1-27 06:43
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JTWC 21Z發佈TCFA,有機會成為南太新風季首旋。
WTPS21 PGTW 262100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.7S 156.4E TO 18.8S 160.4E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 261800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.9S 156.8E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 11.9S 156.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.9S 156.8E, APPROXIMATELY
755NM NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 261952 F-17 91GHZ IMAGE DEPICT A
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 93P IS
LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR WITH BOTH EQUATOR AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW. WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (28-30 CELSIUS) COMBINED WITH A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN 93P OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 93P WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN
AND TRACK IN A SOUTHERN TRAJECTORY OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT 24-48
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 272100Z.
//
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FMS 編號05F,定位跟93P比較接近。
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD05F CENTER {[998HPA]} WAS ANALYSED NEAR 14.0S
160.2E AT 260900UTC SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON HIMAWARI
IR/VIS IMAGERY WITH ANIMATIONS AND PERIPHERAL OBSERVATIONS. SST
AROUND 29 DEGREES CELSIUS.
OUTFLOW GOOD TO EAST WITH DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED TO EAST. OVERALL
ORGANISATIONS HAS IMPROVED IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
EXTENDS UPTO 500HPA. SYSTEM LIES IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH
MODERATE UPPER DIVERGENCE.
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WITH FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.
POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEST 24 TO 48 HOURS IS MODERATE TO HIGH.
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