chenbo

  輕度颱風  
編號：1701 ( 03 W )
名稱：梅花 ( Muifa )


  基本資料  
擾動編號日期：2017 年 04 月 20 日 09 時
升格熱低日期：2017 年 04 月 23 日 20 時
命名日期　　：2017 年 04 月 26 日 08 時
停編日期　　：2017 年 04 月 27 日 20 時
登陸地點　　：無

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速
中央氣象局 (CWB)：18 m/s ( 8 級 )
日本氣象廳 (JMA) ：18 m/s ( 35 kt )
聯合颱風警報中心 (JTWC)：40 kts ( TS )

海平面最低氣壓與暴風半徑
海平面最低氣壓：998 百帕
七級風半徑　　：100 公里
十級風半徑　　：---- 公里

  過去路徑圖  


  擾動編號資料  
93W.INVEST.15kts.1006mb.3N.152E


以上資料來自：CWB、JMA、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

W環

JTWC: LOW

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 4.8N
149.8E, APPROXIMATELY 600 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 202014Z SSMIS 91GHZ
PARTIAL MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW FLARING CONVECTION BEGINNING TO WRAP IN
TO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN
AN ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT, WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (29-30 CELSIUS), AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10
KNOTS). GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST GRADUAL ORGANIZATION AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.

ben811018

更新一下雲圖囉~

asus5635

JMA 12Z直接升TD

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA AT 10N 142E WNW 10 KT.

asus5635

JTWC: MEDIUM

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.5N
142.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.5N 139.2E, APPROXIMATELY 85 NM
NORTHEAST OF YAP. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
231755Z AMSU 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE BOTH DEPICT A CONSOLIDATING LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH INCREASED CONVECTION BEGINNING TO WRAP
INTO THE SYSTEM. HOWEVER, A 231231Z ASCAT PASS INDICATED A BROAD
CIRCULATION WITH 15 KNOT WINDS AND STRONGER WINDS (20 KNOTS) WELL TO
THE NORTH OF THE CIRCULATION. THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF
IMPROVED POLAR OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10 KNOTS), AND
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS
INDICATE SLOW INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM AS IT PROPAGATES
NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.

====
在此同時，JMA也發布Warning

WARNING.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA

AT 10.4N 140.9E MARIANAS MOVING WEST SLOWLY.

POSITION POOR.

MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

ben811018

因周邊垂直風切偏強
要更進一步發展機會較低


短期內沿高壓邊緣偏西進行
走到高壓西側後將會北轉

t02436

JTWC發布TCFA

asus5635

看起來是無害的系統。