0908morakot

  三級颶風  
編號：15 E
名稱：Linda


  基本資料  
擾動編號日期：2015 年 09 月 05 日 00 時
命名日期　　：2015 年 09 月 06 日 23 時
消散日期　　：2015 年 09 月 14 日 20 時
登陸地點　　：無

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速 ：110  kt ( CAT.3 )
海平面最低氣壓 ：951 百帕

  過去路徑圖  


  討論帖圖片  
98E.INVEST.15kts.1005mb.9.5N.103.5W


NHC:10%

1. Disoganized showers and thunderstorms located several hundred miles
south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, are associated with a broad
area of low pressure.  Slow development of this system is possible
during the next several days as the low moves northwestward and
gradually merges with another disturbance to its west.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

以上資料來自：NHC、颱風論壇整理製作

t02436

12Z速報評價100節
15Z正報再調升至105節
NHC認為已經達到顛峰

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 081434
TCDEP5

HURRICANE LINDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152015
900 AM MDT TUE SEP 08 2015

The satellite presentation of Linda has improved this morning, with
an eye becoming apparent in infrared imagery. Dvorak satellite
classifications were T6.0/115 kt from TAFB and T5.5/102 kt from
SAB, and the UW-CIMSS ADT estimates have increased to T5.9/112 kt.
The initial intensity is set conservatively to 105 kt given the
rapid change in the satellite presentation and the variation seen in
the definition of the eye in recent images. This makes Linda the
fifth major hurricane in the eastern North Pacific basin this year.

It would appear that Linda is peaking in intensity now, as the
cyclone will be moving over progressively cooler SSTs and into a
drier more stable environment over the next several days. Slow
weakening is forecast today, followed by more rapid weakening due to
the above-mentioned unfavorable factors. The new NHC forecast is
higher than the previous one through 24 hours to account for the
initial intensity, but is similar to the previous official forecast
after that time. Linda should become a remnant low in about 3 days
over very cool waters west of the Baja California peninsula.

Linda has been moving a little faster during the past few hours,
with an initial motion estimate of 335/12. The tropical cyclone
should turn toward the northwest later today under the influence of
a subtropical ridge centered over Mexico. The remnant low is then
forecast to turn west-northwestward and westward by the end of the
period as it is steered by the low-level flow. The track model
guidance has continued to shift toward the right this cycle, and is
also a bit faster. The new NHC forecast has been adjusted to account
for those trends, and now lies on the left side of the guidance
envelope, between the ECMWF and the multi-model consensus.

Although Linda is forecast to remain well offshore of the Baja
California peninsula, large swells are expected to affect portions
of the west coast of that peninsula during the next few days. The
analyzed 12-ft seas radii were increased based on data from a recent
Jason-2 satellite altimeter pass.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  08/1500Z 21.3N 113.9W  105 KT 120 MPH
12H  09/0000Z 22.3N 114.8W   95 KT 110 MPH
24H  09/1200Z 23.7N 116.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
36H  10/0000Z 25.0N 117.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
48H  10/1200Z 26.1N 118.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
72H  11/1200Z 27.3N 120.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H  12/1200Z 27.5N 122.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  13/1200Z 27.5N 124.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brennan

蜜露

琳達稍早進一步增強成為MH (3級颶風)

底層最新還沒有. 但現在應該已經接好了..

現在風眼已經打開.



2015上  1997下
這和1997年的琳達颶風有一種似層相似的感覺.. 像是投胎轉世

尤其是環流的流出. 是同類型的..雖然多數認為這個2015的琳達沒有機會能達到5級強度

蜜露

Linda的環流相當出色,這個流出大概是去年Marie之後最傑出的.

東太颶風霸氣. 不少都流行這種



通常這種樣貌是東太平洋颶風有很大的潛力存在.
昨日至今不到24小時命名就增強成為1級颶風.

不過Linda的速度很快. 未來估計很快進入低OHC區域
所以發展時間並不多.


不可能每個都Andres吧

像這種熱帶氣旋.上望不看好.但爆發速度太快. 往往超出預報的強度.
還記得今年澳洲那個Marica. 當初都沒有數值看好的

底層眼已經出現了.  接下來高層看會不會開眼. 發展時間還有24小時.



看會不會跌破眼鏡

t02436

原本巔峰只上望75節，結果命名報過了一報就升C1了
巔峰改上望95節

報文內指出Linda已經進入快速增強期，CDO正在建立
未來兩天內環境仍然良好，預測24小時後達到巔峰

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 070253
TCDEP5

HURRICANE LINDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152015
900 PM MDT SUN SEP 06 2015

Linda has been rapidly intensifying.  Within the cyclone's sprawling
circulation, a relatively small central dense overcast (CDO) has
formed during the last 6 to 12 hours over the estimated low-level
center.  The deep convection within this feature has expanded in
coverage, the associated cloud tops have cooled considerably, and
its shape has become increasingly more symmetric.  A 0110 UTC
Windsat pass confirmed the rapid increase of inner-core structural
organization, with a closed low-level ring of convection evident. A
TAFB satellite classification of a T4.0/65 kt and the latest
UW-CIMSS ADT value of 4.2/70 kt are used to raise the initial
intensity to 65 kt.

The current rapid intensification is likely to continue for another
24 hours or so, since Linda will be moving over anomalously warm
waters of 28 to 29.5 deg C and embedded in a very moist environment.
The only negative factor could be some northeasterly shear as
indicated in SHIPS model output.  However, this shear has not
prevented Linda from strengthening much faster than the
climatological rate of one T-number per day thus far.  A more
poleward and faster track forecast (described below) should bring
Linda over cooler waters sooner, and increasingly unfavorable
thermodynamic factors should cause rapid weakening to begin in 2 to
3 days.  Remnant low status is shown at day 5, but it would not be
surprising if it occurred earlier. The new intensity forecast is
higher than the previous one and shows a peak intensity in 24 hours.
Overall, it is just above the strongest guidance, the SHIPS and FSU
Superensemble output, in the short term and near the multi-model
consensus after that.

Linda has been moving more poleward and faster, and the initial
motion estimate is 320/12.  Water vapor and upper-air analyses show
a large mid-level anticyclone near the Texas-Mexico border, with a
weakness in the ridge between 120-130W.  Global models show Linda
moving northwestward to north-northwestward toward the break in this
ridge within a deep-layer southeasterly flow during the next couple
of days.  As the ridge weakens and shifts westward over northern
Mexico in 2 to 3 days, Linda should continue northwestward but
decelerate.  The rapid weakening forecast to begin around that time
should make Linda a progressively shallower cyclone, and its track
is forecast to bend west-northwestward and westward by days 4 and 5
as it will then be under the influence of the low-level subtropical
ridge.  The new track forecast is shifted to the right and faster
than the previous one through 72 hours, and is close to the
multi-model consensus.  By day 5, the track is slower and a bit to
the left of the old forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  07/0300Z 16.1N 110.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
12H  07/1200Z 17.3N 111.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
24H  08/0000Z 19.2N 113.2W   95 KT 110 MPH
36H  08/1200Z 20.9N 114.7W   90 KT 105 MPH
48H  09/0000Z 22.1N 115.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
72H  10/0000Z 24.2N 117.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
96H  11/0000Z 25.0N 119.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  12/0000Z 25.2N 122.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain

底層風眼構建中

t02436

對流猛烈爆發
NHC 12Z直接評價40節並命名Linda
巔峰上望75kts

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 061436
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM LINDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152015
900 AM MDT SUN SEP 06 2015

Satellite images indicate that deep convection associated with the
depression has been increasing during the last several hours and
banding features are becoming better established on the west side
of the circulation.  The Dvorak classifications have increased to
3.0/45 kt from TAFB and 2.5/35 kt from SAB.  The latest ADT value
from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin is 2.9/43 kt.  Based on
these data, the initial intensity is increased to 40 kt, making the
system Tropical Storm Linda.

Recent microwave images indicate that the center of Linda is located
on the northeast side of the main area of convection due to
northeasterly shear.  This shear, however, is not expected to be
strong enough to prevent strengthening while Linda remains embedded
in a moist air mass and over 28-29 degree C waters during the next
couple of days.  After 48 hours, the atmosphere is expected to be
drier and more stable near Linda and water temperatures lower along
the forecast track.  These conditions should halt intensification
and result in a gradual weakening of the cyclone.  The NHC intensity
forecast is higher than the previous one and a little above the
intensity model consensus, favoring the solutions of the SHIPS and
LGEM models.

Linda is moving northwestward at about 10 kt, steered by a mid-level
high pressure system centered over northern Mexico and the southern
United States.  The ridge is expected to more or less remain in
place during the next couple of days, which should keep Linda on
the same general course.  After that time, a slowdown is predicted
as the ridge weakens some.  The NHC track forecast has again been
shifted a little to the north and is faster than the previous one,
trending toward the latest guidance.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/1500Z 14.1N 109.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
12H  07/0000Z 15.5N 110.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
24H  07/1200Z 17.3N 111.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
36H  08/0000Z 19.0N 113.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
48H  08/1200Z 20.3N 114.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
72H  09/1200Z 22.2N 116.9W   70 KT  80 MPH
96H  10/1200Z 23.9N 119.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  11/1200Z 25.0N 122.3W   40 KT  45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

KINGRIC

NHC升格TD
強度方面暫上看一級颶風下限


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/0300Z 13.1N 107.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
12H  06/1200Z 14.1N 108.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
24H  07/0000Z 15.5N 109.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
36H  07/1200Z 17.0N 111.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
48H  08/0000Z 18.5N 112.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
72H  09/0000Z 20.2N 115.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
96H  10/0000Z 21.5N 118.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  11/0000Z 22.5N 121.0W   50 KT  60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake