WTPN21 PGTW 270900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 94W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
130 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.2N 131.4E TO 17.1N 129.6E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AND SYNOPTIC DATA AT 270600Z INDICATE THAT A CIRCULATION
CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 131.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 14.5N 132.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 131.3E, APPROXIMATELY
741 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 270439Z ASMR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A
BROAD, SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING, LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH SOME POCKETS
OF FLARING CONVECTION OVERHEAD. 94W IS CURRENTLY IN A MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (30 TO
31 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BEING OFFSET BY MODERATE (15 TO
25 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT 94W WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY WHILE INTENSIFYING OVER THE
NEXT 36-48 HOURS BEFORE BEGINNING TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTHWARD WITH
CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
280900Z.//
NNNNN
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 13.2N 133.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 131.8E, APPROXIMATELY
480 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF LEGAZPI, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 261222Z METOP-B 89GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH CONVECTION
SHEARED TO THE SOUTHWEST. 94W IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (30 TO 31
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BEING OFFSET BY MODERATE (10 TO 20
KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
94W WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY WHILE CONSOLIDATING OVER THE NEXT
48-60 HOURS AND INTENSIFYING BEFORE TURNING NORTHWARD WITH CONTINUED
DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO
15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.