00Z登陸索馬利亞，已減弱為DD

SUB: CYCLONIC STORM „PAWAN‟ (PRONOUNCED AS „PAVAN‟) OVER SOUTHWEST ARABIAN SEA
CROSSED SOMALIA COAST AND WEAKENED INTO A DEEP DEPRESSION OVER COASTAL
SOMALIA
CYCLONIC STORM „PAWAN‟ (PRONOUNCED AS „PAVAN‟) OVER SOUTHWEST ARABIAN SEA
MOVED NEARLY WESTWARDS WITH A SPEED OF 26 KMPH DURING PAST 06 HOURS, CROSSED
SOMALIA COAST NEAR LATITUDE 7.4°N AND LONGITUDE 49.6°E DURING 0200 TO 0300 UTC OF
07TH DECEMBER 2019 AS A CYCLONIC STORM WITH A WIND SPEED OF 60-70 KMPH GUSTING TO
80 KMPH, WEAKENED INTO A DEEP DEPRESSION AND LAY CENTERED AT 0300 UTC OF 07TH
DECEMBER, 2019 OVER COASTAL SOMALIA AND NEIGHBOURHOOD NEAR LATITUDE 7.4°N AND
LONGITUDE 49.5°E. IT IS VERY LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO MOVE NEARLY WESTWARDS AND
WEAKEN INTO A DEPRESSION DURING NEXT 06 HOURS AND INTO A WELL MARKED LOW
PRESSURE AREA DURING THE SUBSEQUENT 12 HOURS.

改編ARB 05B

(B) DEEP DEPRESSION OVER SOUTHWEST ARABIAN SEA:
THE DEEP DEPRESSION OVER SOUTHWEST ARABIAN SEA REMAINED PRACTICALLY STATIONARY DURING
PAST 06 HOURS AND LAY CENTRED AT 0000 HRS UTC OF 04TH DECEMBER, 2019 NEAR LATITUDE 7.2°N AND
LONGITUDE 56.6°E OVER SOUTHWEST ARABIAN SEA, ABOUT 670 KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SOCOTRA
(41494) AND 930 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BOSASO (63210). IT IS VERY LIKELY TO INTENSIFY INTO A
CYCLONIC STORM DURING NEXT 12 HOURS. IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARDS FOR
SOME MORE TIME AND THEN RECURVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS TOWARDS SOMALIA COAST DURING
NEXT 03 DAYS.

06Z恢復ARB 05

ARB/05/2019
Dated: 04.12.2019
Deep Depression over southwest Arabian Sea lay centred at 1130 hrs IST of 04th December, 2019 near latitude 7.4°N and longitude 56.6°E over Southwest Arabian Sea, about 650 km south-southeast of Socotra (Yemen). It is very likely to intensify into a Cyclonic Storm during next 06 hours.

00Z已分別升格06A及深低壓，巔峰皆上望40節。

JTWC 28/18Z評級Low。

(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90A) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 2.6N
56.0E, APPROXIMATELY 646 NM EAST OF MOGADISHU, SOMALIA. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY DEPICTS DISORGANIZED CONVECTION OVER A
PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION, SUPPORTED BY A 281130Z
85GHZ SSMI SATELLITE IMAGE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A
MARGINAL POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE AND MARGINAL WESTWARD OUTFLOW OFFSET BY HIGH (20-30KTS)
LEVELS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW SOME DEVELOPMENT
BETWEEN TAU 96 AND 120, AS THE CIRCULATION MAKES LANDFALL OVER
SOMALIA.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.