簽到天數: 2141 天 [LV.Master]伴壇終老
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周子堯@FB|2018-9-25 20:34
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JTWC評級Low,數值普遍看好強度發展
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 7.9N
157.7E, APPROXIMATELY 70 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF POHNPEI, FEDERATED
STATES OF MICRONESIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A LARGE, EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH PERSISTENT YET
DISORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION FLARING OVER THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. A
250245Z AMSR2 89GHZ IMAGE INDICATES A POORLY DEFINED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH VERY WEAK CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM POHNPEI REVEAL SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 5 KNOTS
AND SLP NEAR 1006MB. A 242234Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS AN ELONGATED,
DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH 20-25 KNOT CONVERGENT WESTERLY WINDS OVER
THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND 10-15 KNOT EASTERLY WINDS OVER THE
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT WITH A BROAD INVERTED TROUGH AND CONVERGENT FLOW OVER
THE SYSTEM OFFSET BY WEAK DIFFLUENCE. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A
DISTINCT LLCC WILL DEVELOP AND CONSOLIDATE WITHIN THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THIS LARGE CIRCULATION OVER THE NEXT 1-2 DAYS WITH
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD
GUAM AFTER DAY TWO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
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