WTPN31 PHNC 111600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01E (ADRIAN) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111200Z --- NEAR 11.1N 93.6W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
REPEAT POSIT: 11.1N 93.6W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 11.8N 94.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 12.5N 95.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 13.0N 96.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 13.4N 97.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 13.0N 98.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 12.5N 98.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 00 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 12.5N 98.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
111600Z POSITION NEAR 11.3N 93.9W.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01E (ADRIAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1832 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111200Z
IS 8 FEET.
//
Tropical Depression Adrian Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012017
400 AM CDT Thu May 11 2017
The cloud pattern has deteriorated significantly, and it now
consists of a broad swirl of low clouds. Most of the convection is
well removed to the north and is already over the coast of Mexico. I
was tempted to declare the system dissipated at this time and issue
the last advisory. However, it is prudent to confirm the rapid
weakening with early visible images, and also to be sure that
convection does not redevelop near the center.
The GFS insists on intensification, but the ECMWF dissipates the
system quickly. A compromise between these two models is to keep a
weak and shallow remnant low drifting west-northwestward and then
westward within the low-level flow for the next several days.
Tropical Depression One-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012017
400 PM CDT Tue May 09 2017
The cloud pattern of the low pressure area located a few hundred
miles south-southwest of El Salvador has continued to become better
organized, with developing convective banding features. Also, data
from a recent ASCAT overpass showed that a closed circulation has
developed. Therefore advisories are being initiated on this system.
The intensity is set at 30 kt in agreement with the scatterometer
measurements and a Dvorak classification from SAB. The tropical
cyclone is expected to remain over warm waters of SSTs near 30 deg C
through the forecast period, and the global models show the system
remaining beneath an upper-level anticyclone with well-defined
outflow. Thus, strengthening is likely and the official intensity
forecast is a little below the intensity model consensus.
Geostationary satellite and scatterometer fixes indicate that the
initial motion is 300/5 kt. The tropical cyclone is expected to be
situated to the south of a mid-level anticyclone, centered over the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico, for the next several days. This
steering pattern should maintain a general west-northwestward motion
through 72 hours or so. Later in the forecast period, the
anticyclone is predicted to weaken and this should induce a turn to
the north. The official track forecast is roughly in the middle of
the dynamical track guidance, and is between the GFS and ECMWF
solutions.
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