巔峰圖 ~~
有美式Cat.5的潛力 .







向日葵的Vapor在NRL好像都不正常?  不在貼了

BOM:後熱帶氣旋
JTWC: FW

100900Z POSITION NEAR 18.9S 102.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (ERNIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 660 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
SYSTEM, AND SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS SUPPORTED BY A 100244Z ASCAT PASS
SHOWING 35 KNOT WINDS (WITH ISOLATED 40 KNOTS) ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DEGRADE WITH
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR VALUES INCREASING TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS AND SSTS
DROPPING TO 25C. TC ERNIE IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED STR POSITIONED OVER
NORTHWEST AUSTRALIA. THE SYSTEM HAS BEGUN TO DISSIPATE AND IS
FORECAST TO REACH FULL DISSIPATION BY TAU 12, DUE TO THE PERSISTENT
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN
PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z IS 15
FEET.//
NNNN

雲圖影片~

windytv ECMWF9km 上這個氣旋很弱，是哪裡出錯了嗎？

JTWC升130kt 上望135kt

時隔將近11年，澳大利亞區域終於迎來120kt以上（對應T7.0）的熱帶氣旋。

1. IDW27600
   
2. TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
   
3. Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
   
4. at: 1836 UTC 07/04/2017
   
5. Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Ernie
   
6. Identifier: 26U
   
7. Data At: 1800 UTC
   
8. Latitude: 15.9S
   
9. Longitude: 110.4E
   
10. Location Accuracy: within 15 nm [30 km]
    
11. Movement Towards: south [180 deg]
    
12. Speed of Movement: 3 knots [6 km/h]
    
13. Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 120 knots [220 km/h]
    
14. Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 170 knots [315 km/h]
    
15. Central Pressure: 922 hPa
    
16. Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
    
17. Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
    
18. Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 80 nm [150 km]
    
19. Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
    
20. Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
    
21. Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
    
22. Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
    
23. Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
    
24. Radius of 64-knot winds: 20 nm [35 km]
    
25. Radius of Maximum Winds: 15 nm [30 km]
    
26. Dvorak Intensity Code: T7.0/7.0/D4.0/24HRS STT:D0.5/06HRS
    
27. Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
    
28. Radius of outermost closed isobar: 100 nm [185 km]
    
29. FORECAST DATA
    
30. Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
    
31. [UTC]        : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
    
32. +06:  08/0000: 16.0S 110.3E:     025 [050]:  120  [220]:  928
    
33. +12:  08/0600: 16.2S 110.0E:     040 [070]:  115  [215]:  931
    
34. +18:  08/1200: 16.3S 109.6E:     050 [095]:  105  [195]:  941
    
35. +24:  08/1800: 16.4S 109.1E:     065 [120]:  095  [175]:  953
    
36. +36:  09/0600: 16.7S 107.7E:     085 [155]:  065  [120]:  977
    
37. +48:  09/1800: 17.1S 105.9E:     105 [190]:  045  [085]:  992
    
38. +60:  10/0600: 17.8S 103.8E:     125 [230]:  035  [065]:  999
    
39. +72:  10/1800: 18.6S 101.6E:     140 [265]:  030  [055]: 1002
    
40. +96:  11/1800: 20.3S  98.3E:     185 [345]:  025  [045]: 1005
    
41. +120: 12/1800:             :              :            :     
    
42. REMARKS:
    
43. Severe Tropical Cyclone Ernie was located using infrared satellite imagery. The
    
44. position has low uncertainty due to a clearly defined eye.
    
45. 
    
46. Dvorak Analysis: An eye pattern in EIR provides DT of 7.0 using cold white
    
47. surround and a warm medium grey eye.Whilst this technically is breaking
    
48. constraints over 24 hours, due to the consistency of DTs ranging between 6.5 to
    
49. 7.0 over the past six hours the decision to have the system strength based on
    
50. very rapid intensification due to satellite observations in the last 9 to 12
    
51. hours was made. NESDIS ADT lagged in transitioning to an eye pattern and
    
52. subsequently has FT numbers about 6.5. Satcon winds estimated 130 kt sustained
    
53. winds. Intensity is set at 120 knots with a small radius of max winds, though
    
54. with gales in a more extensive area in southern quadrants.
    
55. 
    
56. SSTs are 29-30C and ocean heat content is favourable.
    
57. 
    
58. CIMSS continues to show good poleward outflow and upper divergence. CIMSS shear
    
59. has further decreased in the last 12 hours to be less than 10 knots.
    
60. 
    
61. Over the next 12 to 24 hours, conditions will remain favourable with low
    
62. vertical wind shear, high moisture and warm SSTs. As a mid level ridge develops
    
63. later on today and begins influencing the steering, the presence of dry air and
    
64. increasing shear should cause the system to weaken, however, gales may persist
    
65. in southern quadrants due to the pressure gradient associated with a ridge of
    
66. high pressure to the south.
    
67. 
    
68. The system is being steered towards the south due to an upper trough passing to
    
69. the south. during today, a building mid level ridge will steer the system
    
70. towards the west-southwest. The majority of NWP guidance is consistent with the
    
71. forecast track.
    
72. 
    
73. Severe Tropical Cyclone Ernie is not expected to produce gales at Christmas
    
74. Island or the WA mainland.
    
75. 
    
76. Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
    
77. ==
    
78. The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 08/0130 UTC by Perth TCWC.

複製代碼

明明可以DT7.0（澳洲甚至已經分析DT7.5），Hart把風眼看成OW就變成DT6.5，再加上滯後限制就成了T5.5。

TPXS10 PGTW 071501

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (ERNIE)

B. 07/1430Z

C. 15.80S

D. 110.42E

E. THREE/HMWRI8

F. T5.5/5.5/D3.0/24HRS  STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 09A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. OW EYE SUR WHITE (+.5 ADJ
CMG) YIELDS DT OF 6.5. MET YIELDS 4.0. PT YIELDS 6.0. DBO
CONSTRAINTS.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   07/1138Z  15.63S  110.57E  SSMS
   07/1151Z  15.73S  110.52E  SSMS


   HART