jwpk9899

JTWC升格06W 預估稍後就可以看見該熱低壓首份預測路徑了
另外JMA9點報沒有升格

shadow16

JMA: GW

熱帯低気圧
平成27年05月02日22時20分 発表
<02日21時の実況>
大きさ -
強さ -
熱帯低気圧
存在地域 カロリン諸島
中心位置 北緯 7度25分(7.4度)
東経 142度35分(142.6度)
進行方向、速さ 西 20km/h(10kt)
中心気圧 1006hPa
中心付近の最大風速 15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速 23m/s(45kt)

<03日21時の予報>
強さ -
存在地域 カロリン諸島
予報円の中心 北緯 8度30分(8.5度)
東経 139度25分(139.4度)
進行方向、速さ 西北西 15km/h(8kt)
中心気圧 1002hPa
中心付近の最大風速 18m/s(35kt)
最大瞬間風速 25m/s(50kt)
予報円の半径 220km(120NM)

蜜露

GFS這次反應,看好他的發展了..但路徑稍微平西下修.
甚至看好了她Cat.3以上的強度.




EC的情形..後面還有一個

t02436

JTWC發布TCFA

WTPN21 PGTW 020830
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 7.4N 144.2E TO 8.4N 140.6E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 020600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 7.4N 144.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.7N
145.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.4N 144.1E, APPROXIMATELY 360 NM SOUTH
OF GUAM. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) ALSO EVIDENT IN RECENT MICROWAVE SATELLITE
IMAGERY INCLUDING A 020414Z AMSU PASS. THIS DISTURBANCE LIES
EQUATORWARD OF AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS, IN AN AREA OF LOW TO
MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, INCREASING OUTFLOW ALOFT,
AND FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. BASED
ON LOW-LEVEL CONSOLIDATION, IMPROVING CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE, AND
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL SUPPORT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
030830Z.//
NNNN

JMA升格TD
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 07N 145E WEST 10 KT.


00Z

ben811018

GFS一改之前的預報~ 大幅西調！

ben811018

EC這報進入巴士海峽
北方有槽東移~副高呈南北向
有機會將92往北推更靠近台灣
當然~時間還久~變動還很大!




GFS路徑~
跟EC差異不小呢..
究竟誰會勝出呢?
繼續看下去!

ahdeeh

UPGRADED  TO MEDIUM.  

   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.9N
146.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.7N 145.5E, APPROXIMATELY 402 NM SOUTH
OF GUAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING
CENTRAL CONVECTION. A 011148Z PARTIAL SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWS AN
ELONGATED LLCC WITH 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND MODERATE DIVERGENCE ALOFT. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
DEPICT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT
2 TO 3 DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO
20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

ben811018

副高強度很關鍵...

是這也太強大了@@